1 August 2024
On Tuesday 30 July after a period of abnormally dry weather Pittsburgh had a series of gully washers that scoured the creeks and greened up the grass. The downpours were sudden and stupendous. In just three brief episodes — fortunately spaced seven hours apart — we received 0.85″ of rain.
Ten years ago we were amazed by these episodes because they were so different from our usual slow, soaking rains. Back then the only place I’d experienced this weather prompted me to call it “Texas rain.” In 2014 climate.gov predicted an increase in heavy rain episodes on this map. Pittsburgh registered an uptick but not the worst.
OLD PREDICTION IN 2014. Heavy Rain Days in 2041-2070
Five years later climate.gov revised their prediction and it was worse.
REVISED! PREDICTION IN 2019. Heavy Rain Days in Late 21st Century
From climate.gov: Prepare for more downpours: Heavy rain has increased across most of the United States, and is likely to increase further.
The two maps are not “apples to apples.” On the 2019 map the prediction time frame is longer and change is expressed as a percentage rather than an absolute number of days.
However the map is scary and it lit a fire under Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority (PWSA) to fix the sewers now before things get worse. Since then they’ve been systematically digging up city streets to replace ancient storm sewer lines while Alcosan (sewage treatment) is implementing their EPA-approved plan to keep sewage out of the rivers.
We don’t need a prediction map to tell us it’s getting wetter in Pittsburgh. Frequent heavy downpours are now a way of life.
Read more — though 10 years old — in this vintage article:
Thanks, Kate, for posting these comparative climate change scenarios. We have a farm in Armstrong County, and it has seemed to me that climate change is happening now at a much more rapid pace than scientists had previously projected. I used to think that the most catastrophic effects of climate change would happen after I was long gone, but, as someone in their mid-seventies, I am no longer certain of that.
Lucinda, I agree. It is happening much faster than I thought it would!