Category Archives: Climate Change

Just a Few Rare Geese

Greater white-fronted geese (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

23 December 2024

It seems that Pittsburgh missed waterfowl migration this fall with only a handful of the expected migrants landing on our rivers and lakes. Except for long distance migrants, waterfowl haven’t come at all.

Some ducks, geese and gulls only move south when ice overtakes their location. If they’re hanging out at Lake Erie near Presque Isle, the map of yesterday’s water temperature indicates they have no reason to leave. The water there is more than 40°F and the only ice is in small bays (black color on the map).

Great Lakes surface Temperature and ice cover as of 22 Dec 2024 (map from Great Lakes Environmental Research Lab)

There are a few rare geese, though, photographed and posted to eBird and embedded below.

There’s currently a Ross’s goose (Anser rossii) at North Park, noticeably small than the Canada geese it’s hanging out with.

Yesterday there was a brant (Branta bernicla) at Duck Hollow without any Canada geese to keep it company. So it hung out with ring-billed gulls.

And a flock of 16 greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) who normally migrate west of the Mississippi and winter in Louisiana, southern Texas and Mexico have been hanging out with Canada geese in Butler County since 1 December.

These geese are called “white-fronted” because their foreheads are white.

Wondering why the ducks aren’t here? This 2021 vintage article explains why.

Where’s Willow?

Willow ptarmigan, Feb 2009 (photo by G MacRae via Flickr Creative Commons license)

19 December 2024

Though this willow ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus) thinks he’s hiding his all-white plumage makes him painfully obvious in a snowless landscape.

There are three species of north country ptarmigans (Lagopus) — willow, white-tailed and rock ptarmigans — that change their plumage with the seasons in order to stay camouflaged against the ground. They’re white in winter to match the snow, brown in summer to match vegetation, and mottled as the seasons change. Their molt cycle worked well until climate change made winters shorter.

White-tailed ptarmigan, 23 Jun 2022, Alberta (photo by Dan Arndt)

Fourteen years ago, in 2010, I blogged about the willow ptarmigan’s superior winter camouflage in Where’s Willow? and he was hard to find in the snowy landscape.

Willow ptarmigan in 2000 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

Seven years ago, in 2017, I looked again. His camouflage still worked.

White-tailed ptarmigan, 25 Nov 2017 (photo by Dan Arndt via Flickr Creative Commons license)

But climate change is making winter is shorter. Snow cover does not begin as early as it used to the fall and it melts earlier in the spring. The ptarmigans’ molt cycle is still on the old schedule so he’s no longer camouflaged when the seasons change. You can see this rock ptarmigan easily from far away.

Rock ptarmigan, Svalbard, 1 July 2014 (photo by Allan Hopkins)

In 2021 ptarmigans were already in decline when scientists in British Columbia, Canada studied the effect of climate change on their native ranges in the province. Their answer is sobering in A genus at risk: Predicted current and future distribution of all three Lagopus species reveal sensitivity to climate change and efficacy of protected areas.

By 2080 all three ptarmigan species will have to move up in elevation and further north in latitude to find the climate they need to survive.

Summary of average current and future predictions for shifts in elevation, latitude and range size for the genus Lagopus in BC. … with size of pie charts being proportional to the relative value of current and future species’ range

So where will the willow ptarmigan be in 2080 in BC? Three possibilities are shown below.

Modelled potential distribution of willow ptarmigan in B.C. for current (top-left) and future scenarios (2080s) under habitat and various climatic projections. … Future models highlighted similar suitable areas with most resilient locations being in the higher latitude Cassiar Mountains and to the east (Canadian Rockies). © OpenStreetMap contributors

Willow will be in far fewer places than he is now (current range at top left).

Read more at: A genus at risk: Predicted current and future distribution of all three Lagopus species reveal sensitivity to climate change and efficacy of protected areas. Diversity and Distributions, 27, 1759–1774. by Scridel, D., Brambilla, M.,de Zwaan, D. R., Froese, N., Wilson, S., Pedrini, P., &Martin, K. (2021)

Great Lakes Water is a One Time Gift

Satellite image of the Great Lakes from space, April 2000 (photo from NASA via Wikimedia)

11 December 2024

While writing about Lake Erie last month I found this amazing fact.

The Great Lakes hold nearly 20% of the world’s fresh surface water. And, more astonishingly, the lakes hold more than 90% of North America’s fresh surface water.

But this water supply is not unlimited. The Great Lakes are a one-time gift from the glaciers that melted in our region thousands of years ago. Less than 1 percent of the lakes’ water is renewed annually through rainfall and snowmelt. That means the Great Lakes can be depleted if we don’t keep Great Lakes water in the Great Lakes Basin.

Alliance For The Great Lakes: The Great Lakes Compact

The Great Lakes watershed map shows how little of the surrounding land drains into lakes. This is especially true of northern Pennsylvania and Chautauqua County, NY.

Great Lakes watershed map (from Wikimedia Commons via USACE)

As climate change puts enormous strains on fresh water resources, multinational companies look longingly at bottling our rivers and lakes. Fortunately the Great Lakes basin had an early wake up call.

In 1998, an obscure Canadian consulting company, the Nova Group, announced its intention to ship 158 million gallons of Lake Superior water to Asia. Though that specific plan seemed unlikely to materialize, it raised alarms about the vulnerability of the Great Lakes in an increasingly hot and thirsty world.

Alliance For The Great Lakes: The Great Lakes Compact

And so the Great Lakes Compact was born. Signed into law in 2008, it prohibits diversion of water outside the Great Lakes basin with very limited exceptions.

This one-time gift of the Ice Age glaciers won’t be frittered away.


p.s. Prior to 1945 humans diverted Great Lakes water in four locations but these have barely made a dent in the total watershed.

  • Ogoki pulls water from Hudson Bay watershed into Lake Superior. 1943.
  • Long Lac pulls water from Hudson Bay watershed into Lake Superior. 1939.
  • The Chicago River is diverted away from Lake Michigan and into the Mississippi watershed. Beginning in the 1800s.
  • Welland Canal is a navigation channel from Lake Erie to Lake Ontario that bypasses Niagara Falls. Beginning in 1824.
Great Lakes diversions map from International Joint Commission (of the US & Canada)

The combined effects of the Long Lac, Ogoki and Chicago diversions and the Welland Canal have been to permanently raise Lake Superior by an average of 2.1 centimeters (0.8 inches), lower Lakes Michigan-Huron by 0.6 cm (0.2 in), lower Lake Erie by 10 cm (4 in) and raise Lake Ontario by 2.4 cm (1 in), according to the IJC’s 1985 Great Lakes Diversions and Consumptive Uses report. 

international Joint Commission: An Overview of Great Lakes Diversions

2nd p.s. The Colorado River Basin is an extreme example of what happens when water is diverted. See Disappearing Into This Air.

Remembering November Tornadoes

Tornado in Pennville, IN, 5 Nov 2017 (photo from NWS courtesy Matt Leach)

14 November 2024

Seven years ago this month, on 5 November 2017, a cold front spawned 24 tornadoes as it passed over Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The one that hit Williamsfield, Ohio was documented by the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh.

Damage in Williamsfield, Ohio from 5 Nov 2017 tornado (photo from National Weather Service, Cleveland)
Damage in Williamsfield, Ohio from 5 Nov 2017 tornado (photo from National Weather Service, Cleveland)

The November outbreak was unusual for its location and intensity, described in this vintage article.

So far, this year’s November tornadoes are less numerous and are well south and west of here.

From Flood to Drought in Four Months

4 April 2024, 7:26am ET: Monongahela Rivers floods Duck Hollow parking lot

11 November 2024

In late October all of Pennsylvania went into a Drought Watch. We are not alone.

Every US state except Alaska and Kentucky is facing drought, an unprecedented number.

More than 150 million people and 318 million acres of crops are affected by drought after a summer of record heat.

Guardian: Nearly all of US states are facing droughts, an unprecedented number

As of 5 November the drought is Severe to Extreme in Southeastern Ohio, West Virginia, western Maryland and the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania.

US Drought Monitor from UNL

The amazing thing is that it took only four months to get that way.

In April the Monongahela River flooded the Duck Hollow parking lot — twice — when we had two downpour days of more than 2.6 inches each.

Duck Hollow parking lot — A River Runs Through It — 4 April 2024, 7:19am ET

Then it stopped raining in June and the weather turned exceptionally hot. A drought began in July that became Severe that month in West Virginia and western Maryland.

By late August the boating season was over at Youghiogheny River Lake due to low water. On 1 November when Judy Stark took these pictures, the lake had dropped so far that an old bridge and the foundations of a submerged town were revealed above low water.

Drought reveals old bridge on Youghiogheny River Lake, 1 Nov 2024 (photo by Judy Stark)
Drought reveals remains of Old Somerfield in Youghiogheny River Lake, 1 Nov 2024 (photo by Judy Stark)

In just four months the Monongahela River switched from flood to drought. Since it flows from West Virginia to Pittsburgh, it’s useful to look at precipitation in Morgantown, WV to understand these extremes.

The graph below shows Morgantown’s 2024 monthly precipitation through yesterday, 10 November. Normal precipitation is in green, Actual is in blue. Notice it was at or above normal until July and severely below normal in September and October. (“Normal” precipitation in August came in two downpours that ran off rather than soaking in.)

Monthly Actual vs. Normal Precipitation in Morgantown WV, Jan 1 – Nov 10, 2024 (graph by Kate St. John using NWS data)

Yesterday it rained in the Monongahela watershed for the first time in weeks, a long soaking rain that lasted all day. In Morgantown it accumulated just over an inch (1.02″) and was enough to match their month-to-date “normal” for November.

We’re so thankful for yesterday’s soaking rain but we’ll need more than one day to end the drought.

Fingers crossed. Thursday looks good for rain.


p.s. Yes, Sunday’s rain was not enough. This evening KDKA TV News showed footage of brush fires over the weekend, including one that was burning while it was raining.

video embedded from CBS Pittsburgh on YouTube

The NWS meteorologist in this video, Colton Milcharek, says that it will take a rainy day like yesterday every week for 5 weeks for us to get out of this long term drought without mishaps.

Emerging From The Deep

Youghiogheny River dam with lake at normal level (photo from 1993 via Wikimedia Commons)

1 November 2024

In 1944 the US Army Corp of Engineers completed a flood control dam across the Youghiogheny River that created a lake into Maryland. The project included a new bridge for US Route 40 because the Great Crossings Bridge at Somerfield would be submerged and so would the town’s low lying streets and buildings.

map of Youghiogheny River Lake and Recreational Area from USACE via Wikimedia

Normally the lake is full and beautiful. You would never know there was a bridge underneath it.

Beautiful Youghiogheny River Lake (photo from recreation.gov)

But this year a drought in the Youghiogheny watershed has lowered the lake so far that you can walk out on the old Great Crossings Bridge.

video embedded from CBS Pittsburgh on YouTube

This Google Map shows both bridges.

embedded Google Map showing submerged Great Crossings Bridge north of US Route 40

Pittsburgh is not in severe drought so it’s hard to understand how this lake could drop unless you know where the river comes from. The Youghiogheny is a north-flowing river with headwaters in the mountains of West Virginia and Maryland. Notice that the rest of the Monongahela river basin starts in West Virginia as well.

Monongahela River Basin, Youghiogheny highlighted (map from Wikimedia Commons)

The headwaters of both the Youghiogheny and Monongahela have been in drought since early July. At this point the drought is Extreme to Exceptional in western Maryland and West Virginia.

Northeastern US Drought Map, 29 Oct 2024 (map from US Drought Monitor at UNL)

Water levels have dropped in both rivers but the Monongahela cannot afford to get too low because it carries a lot of barge and boat traffic.

Barge moving downstream on the Monongahela River at Duck Hollow, 18 Sep 2023 (photo by John English)

However, there is water upstream to feed the Monongahela. Releases from Youghiogheny River Lake have, in part, kept the Mon navigable.

And so the old bridge emerges from the deep.

p.s. This isn’t the first time the old bridge has been exposed.

The Future is Almost Here: When the Atlantic (AMOC) Circulation Fails

Visualisation of the Gulf Stream stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to Western Europe (NASA image from Wikimedia)

24 October 2024

Yesterday I saw a video of a scientist choking up at the prospect of Atlantic Ocean circulation failing. Why is he sad?

(If you don’t see the video above, click on this link.)

The speaker is one of 44 climate scientists who released an open letter this week warning that by 2050 a tipping point will likely cause the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to fail, making northeastern Europe much colder and ushering in a host of other adverse effects. He is from Britain and 2050 is just 26 years away.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the main ocean current system in the Atlantic Ocean and a major component of Earth’s ocean circulation. It transports heat and salinity northward and returns cold water to the south. —- paraphrased from Wikipedia

Ocean thermohaline circulation with AMOC extent marked in black. Future failure zone in yellow (from Wikimedia)

Climate scientists have been studying AMOC for decades because they realize that as Greenland melts, it dumps freshwater into the North Atlantic. The freshwater influx slows the northern end of the AMOC and that messes up the whole system.

We (Americans) haven’t paid much attention to this because we think it will only affect Europe but “messing up the whole system” will change the planet completely. Adverse effects include:

  • Northeastern Europe will get much colder
  • A new Ice Age will begin so the entire Northern Hemisphere, ourselves included, will get colder. See Warming Up to the Next Ice Age.
  • The Gulf Stream won’t transport water away from North America (the far end is chopped off) so, within a matter of years, sea level will rise one-to-three feet on the East Coast.
  • The tropical rain belt will move south, disrupting wet and dry seasons in the Amazon and Africa.

This 13-minute video from PBS describes what AMOC is, how it affects us, and what will go wrong when it fails.

2023 video embedded from PBS Terra on YouTube

For a relatively quick synopsis, see The Guardian: ‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation.

Mangroves Protecting The Coast

Great egret among mangroves in Gambia (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

18 October 2024

I have heard that mangroves protect coastlines during hurricanes and tsunamis but I could not imagine how they did it until I saw this video from Licypriya Kangujam (@LicypriyaK), Special Envoy for the President of the Republic of Timor-Leste and 13 year old climate activist.

Timor-Leste, also known as East Timor, is the eastern half of Timor island, located north of Australia. The other half of the island is part of Indonesia.

Map of Timor Leste from Wikimedia Commons

Timor was created by volcanoes so its mountains are steep and nearly everyone lives on the coast. It is good to live by the sea, but they need mangroves to protect them.

Scene from East Timor (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

Timor island is located in the region with the highest diversity of mangroves in the world — 26-47 species in one place. Compare this to just one or two species in Louisiana.

Map of mangrove species distribution worldwide (from ResearchGate: Oil Spills in Mangroves: Planning and Response)

When a hurricane hits Louisiana we often hear that the damage would not have been so great if they had more mangroves. Louisiana is now trying to restore their mangrove forest but it is slow going.

Learn more about mangroves in this award-winning video from The Marine Diaries.

video embedded from The Marine Diaries on YouTube

A Tomato That Thrives in Salty Soil

Currant Tomato (Solanum pimpinellifolium) at Pantanos de Villa, Chorrillos, Peru (photo by ruthgo via iNaturalist)

15 October 2024

Many crops around the world are irrigated but this inevitably leads to salty soil. Eventually the land becomes useless for agriculture.

Irrigation eventually makes the soil salty: Irrigation rig in Yuma County, AZ, 1987 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

USDA explains:

What happens when you irrigate?
Irrigation inevitably leads to the salinization of soils and waters. In the United States yield reductions due to salinity occur on an estimated 30% of all irrigated land. World wide, crop production is limited by the effects of salinity on about 50% of the irrigated land area. … Concern is mounting about the sustainability of irrigated agriculture.

Where does all the salt come from?
Application of irrigation water results in the addition of soluble salts such as sodium, calcium, magnesium, potassium, sulfate, and chloride dissolved from geologic materials with which the waters have been in contact. Evaporation and transpiration (plant uptake) of irrigation water eventually cause excessive amounts of salts to accumulate in soils unless adequate leaching and drainage are provided.

USDA Agricultural Water Efficiency and Salinity Research Unit: Riverside, CA: Frequently Asked Questions About Salinity

Salt residue makes the soil hostile for everything, even weeds.

Salty residue after irrigation water percolated up and evaporated, 2011 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

This worldwide problem will get only worse as climate change increases drought, so a team of researchers looked for salt tolerant crops.

Focusing on the tomato’s closest wild relative, the tiny currant tomato (Solanum pimpinellifolium), they selected “over 2,700 cultivars, raising the seedlings in two environments: a greenhouse, and an open field.”

The best results came from five cultivars from Peru.

Currant tomato flowers in Lambayeque, Peru(photo by jackychj via iNaturalist)
Currant Tomato (Solanum pimpinellifolium) at Los Pantanos de Villa near Lima, Peru

What genes do these plants have that make them thrive? That’s a question for the next study.

Read more in Anthropocene Magazine: A tiny tomato may harbor the secret to salt-tolerance in a climate-changed world. “The closest living wild relative of the common tomato holds untapped genetic secrets thanks to its large diversity.”

Frequent Heavy Downpours Are Now a Way of Life

Rain splashing during a downpour (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

1 August 2024

On Tuesday 30 July after a period of abnormally dry weather Pittsburgh had a series of gully washers that scoured the creeks and greened up the grass. The downpours were sudden and stupendous. In just three brief episodes — fortunately spaced seven hours apart — we received 0.85″ of rain.

Ten years ago we were amazed by these episodes because they were so different from our usual slow, soaking rains. Back then the only place I’d experienced this weather prompted me to call it “Texas rain.” In 2014 climate.gov predicted an increase in heavy rain episodes on this map. Pittsburgh registered an uptick but not the worst.

OLD PREDICTION IN 2014. Heavy Rain Days in 2041-2070
Map predicting change in downpour frequency, 2040-2070 (map from NOAA Climate.gov)
Predicted Change in days of extreme rainfall in 2041-2070 compared to 1971-2000, Greenhouse gas higher emissions (map from climate.gov)

Five years later climate.gov revised their prediction and it was worse.

REVISED! PREDICTION IN 2019. Heavy Rain Days in Late 21st Century
Predicted Change in days of extreme rainfall in late 21st century compared to 1986-2016, Greenhouse gas higher emissions (map from climate.gov)

From climate.gov: Prepare for more downpours: Heavy rain has increased across most of the United States, and is likely to increase further.

The two maps are not “apples to apples.” On the 2019 map the prediction time frame is longer and change is expressed as a percentage rather than an absolute number of days.

However the map is scary and it lit a fire under Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority (PWSA) to fix the sewers now before things get worse. Since then they’ve been systematically digging up city streets to replace ancient storm sewer lines while Alcosan (sewage treatment) is implementing their EPA-approved plan to keep sewage out of the rivers.

We don’t need a prediction map to tell us it’s getting wetter in Pittsburgh. Frequent heavy downpours are now a way of life.

Read more — though 10 years old — in this vintage article: