Bright red maple leaf near Phipps Conservatory, 16 October 2023 (photo by Kate St. John)
21 October 2023
Fall color’s peak in southwestern Pennsylvania used to be around the 12th of October but climate change has pushed it later, closer to the 21st, as you can see in the PA fall foliage prediction for 19-25 October.
This week I found bright leaves on red maple trees, at top, and yellow on buckeyes and hickories.
Schenley Park leaves are yellow and green on 16 October 2023 (photo by Kate St. John)Yellow and orange maple leaves, Frick Park, 18 October 2023 (photo by Kate St. John)
Frick and Schenley are dominated by oaks whose color will peak in the next two weeks. Meanwhile their few red maples turned red from the top down and have lost their leaves in the same order. The maples are gorgeous up close but you can’t see them from a distance because the tops are bare.
The top of this red maple is almost bare, 16 October 2023 (photo by Kate St. John)
Tomorrow night the northwest wind will bring migrating birds overnight and patchy frost on Monday morning.
Birds like the European pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) that winter in the tropics and southern hemisphere do not use weather clues to tell them when to fly north in the spring. Instead they cue on changing day length and return at the same time every year. But as Earth’s climate changes, spring comes weeks earlier than it used to and their migration timing is out of sync. Scientists in the Netherlands decided to give a few lucky birds a lift (a Lyft?) to Sweden and it made all the difference.
Pied flycatchers prefer to nest in or near oak trees where their nesting season is timed to correspond with the peak of caterpillar season. Unfortunately, spring is two weeks earlier now in the Netherlands, pied flycatchers arrive too late and have locally experienced a 90% decline.
The old timing of Netherlands’ spring is now found in southern Sweden so scientists at University of Groningen in the Netherlands and Sweden’s Lund University decided to see what would happen to migration and nesting success if a few pied flycatchers were transported (by car!) from the Netherlands to suitable habitat in Sweden.
Anthropocene Magazine reports, “For three springs, starting in 2017, scientists from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands and Sweden’s Lund University caught newly-arrived Dutch female pied flycatchers and drove them by car to a nesting spot 570 kilometers (354 miles) away in southern Sweden that was already home to other pied flycatchers.”
The experiment was wonderfully successful. The Netherlands’ females were in sync with the food supply and were twice as prolific as their Swedish counterparts who were locally out of sync. After spending the winter in Africa the former-Netherlands females returned to Sweden and so did their offspring!
Later the research team proved that migration timing is genetically inherited in European pied flycatchers by taxiing a few eggs laid in the Netherlands to Swedish nests. Those offspring returned to Sweden the following spring on the Netherlands timing.
Taxi service cannot be the answer to out of sync migration but birds are adapting on their own. During the study, banding still continued at Netherlands nests and some of those youngsters were found nesting in Germany, halfway to Sweden. They flew there on their own.
The weather is hot and getting hotter. Excessive heat plagued the West, Texas and Florida and now, in the next 6-10 days, the heat will move southeast with soaring temperatures at 100°F+.
It’s not just the air that’s hot, the ocean is too. This timelapse video from Colin McCarthy @US_stormwatch shows ocean temperature anomalies from 22 February to 21 July. The hottest colors — the highest above normal — are off the Pacific coast of South America and in the North Atlantic near Newfoundland.
The North Atlantic is in uncharted territory.
The entire ocean basin is a record-smashing 1.5°C above normal, as millions of square miles of ocean experience strong to severe marine heatwaves.
Off the coast of Canada, ocean temperatures are up to 9°C (16°F) above average!… pic.twitter.com/AuPBCc82eX
Warming water off the coast of South America is the developing El Niño, part of the cyclical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that affects weather and climate around the world.
Hot water makes the air hot as Newfoundlanders can tell you. Summers are usually so cool there that only 1 in 5 households in St John’s, NL have air conditioning, at least as of 2019. That is probably changing this summer as temperatures soar into the 90s.
Hot water makes hotter air makes hotter water in an endless feedback loop.
With El Niño on top of climate change I don’t think it will end well.
And then it rained in central and eastern PA and the Drought Condition map changed. Most of the state is now in the green (good) or yellow zone. Except for low groundwater in 14 of our 67 counties, the drought appears to be short term because a good rain can clear it up. See the Before and After, July 9 and 11, in this slideshow.
Meanwhile, Arizona is not in a drought right now but it’s a desert, its water supply is limited, and it suffered a long term drought for many years. Water allocation has to be planned in Arizona so they won’t run out. This prompted Phoenix put the brakes on development last month in places that rely on ground water.
Arizona will not approve new housing construction on the fast-growing edges of metro Phoenix that rely on groundwater thanks to years of overuse and a multi-decade drought that is sapping its water supply. …
Officials said developers could still build in the affected areas but would need to find alternative water sources to do so — such as surface or recycled water.
Driving the state’s decision was a projection that showed that over the next 100 years, demand in metro Phoenix for almost 4.9 million acre-feet of groundwater would be unmet without further action, Hobbs said. An acre-foot of water is roughly enough for two to three U.S. households per year. …
Hobbs added that there are 80,000 unbuilt homes that will be able to move forward because they already have assured water supply certificates within the Phoenix Active Management Area, a designation used for regulating groundwater.
Back in the 1990s I had a friend in the City of Phoenix’s economic development department who was proud to predict that, based on the city’s projected level of development, they had 75 years of water. In other words, they were OK until approximately 2070. My thought at the time was “Only 75 years?? Then what??”
Now we know. It took only 30 years to put the brakes on.
p.s. Phoenix, in Maricopa County, is one of the fastest growing areas of the U.S.; Maricopa grew 20.55% since 2010. Being from Pittsburgh, where Allegheny County grew 2.89% in the same time period, I marveled at the notion of 80,000 unbuilt homes.
(photo and map credits are in the captions, click on the links to see the originals)
A decade ago we thought climate change was a slow moving train but now it’s heating up so fast that new calculations predict we will hit the +1.5°C (2.7°C) global temperature mark in the next five years. The National Audubon Society’s Climate Initiative predicts that most bird species will shift northward. Unfortunately our national symbol, the bald eagle, will leave much of its favorite range in the U.S.
… The Audubon Society predicts that three-quarters of the bald eagles’ current summer range will become unsuitable for the birds in about 60 years.
“A lot of their breeding is going to shift completely into Canada and Alaska. So the lower 48 is looking less ideal for breeding conditions for the species,” said Brooke Bateman, senior scientist at the National Audubon Society.
At +1.5°C — in the next five+ years — the biggest decrease will be in a swath of the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley. This screenshot map of bald eagle climate vulnerability is tiny on purpose so that you’ll view it on the Audubon website. Click here, then scroll down to see the maps for winter/summer.
A global temperature rise of +3.0°C will reduce bald eagle nests in a huge swath of the U.S. from Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina westward to Nebraska and Arkansas. This is unhappy news for Pittsburgh where red indicates a 15% loss of bald eagle nests under the +3.0°C scenario. [Again, view this map on the Audubon website. Click here, then scroll down to see the maps for winter/summer.]
Sadly, climate change will prompt our national bird to move away from home.
Read more about the Audubon climate change report at Yale Climate Connections. See the affect of climate change on the bald eagle’s range in the Audubon Field Guide:
White snakeroot (Ageratina altissima) wilting in Schenley Park, 7 June 2023 (photo by Kate St. John)
9 June 2023
Plants are drooping, water levels are low, and clouds of dust engulf dirt roads in western Pennsylvania. It hasn’t rained for almost three weeks at a time of year that’s usually wet. Yesterday it became official. We’re in a drought.
Every week the U.S. Drought Monitor at University of Nebraska-Lincoln issues a nationwide drought assessment. Pennsylvania is labeled “SL” on this week’s map for evidence in both Short term and Long term indicators. (Click here for the latest Drought Map.)
The drought seems sudden but it’s been building for a while. Precipitation was above normal last year through January 2023 but starting in February it fell off. April and May were seriously below normal. June has been bone dry so far. As of today Pittsburgh has a year-to-date precipitation deficit of 4.55 inches.
Sunset in Pittsburgh 3 June 2023. Pink sun due to Canada’s wildfire smoke (photo by Jonathan Nadle)
6 June 2023
On Saturday evening Jonathan Nadle took a photo of the setting sun glowing pink with threads of smoke across its face. The color was the result of wildfire smoke drifting in from western Canada.
Today Pittsburgh and much of the northeastern U.S. are under an air quality alert because the smoke is now at ground level. We don’t see it as smoke — it looks like haze — but the particles have put our air quality forecast into Code Orange = “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.” Young children, seniors, and those with respiratory problems should limit outdoor activities.
Millions of people across the Midwest are under dangerous air quality conditions Monday, as smoke from wildfires in eastern Canada wafts over the region.
Hazy skies have blanketed a wide swath of the country from the Ohio Valley to as far south as the Carolinas. Air quality advisories are in effect Monday in southeastern Minnesota and parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, as well as in more than 60 counties in Wisconsin.
The spike in air pollution comes from wildfires that have been raging in the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Nova Scotia.
… Canada is experiencing one of the worst starts to its wildfire season ever recorded.
There are wildfires across much of Canada right now — west and east — but the fires affecting Pittsburgh today are mostly in Quebec and nearly all are out of control, displayed as red dots on Canada’s interactive wildfire map. Click here or on the screenshot below to see the interactive map.
For Pittsburgh the smoke is mostly an inconvenience but for Canadians it is dangerous and for the birds that nest in these forests it is deadly. The fires are happening where northern warblers breed including bay-breasted, blackpoll, palm, Cape May and Tennessee.
When we see fewer of these migrating warblers in the fall, the fires will be partly to blame.
7 June 2023, 5:00am: The winds have changed. Pittsburgh air is still Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups this morning but it is much worse elsewhere. It is Very Unhealthy from Harrisburg to Philadelphia (purple), and Hazardous to breathe in a wide swath of Ontario including Ottawa (brown).
A study seven years ago of bird population trends predicted that climate change would cause most species to decline while a few would increase. In May 2016 I wrote about two species whose fates would be different.
The maps below show population trends during the non-breeding season. The white-throated sparrow’s trend map for 2007-2020 indicates their abundance dropped 30% in the lower Mississippi area and on the East Coast from New York to North Carolina.
I’ve noticed the drop in white-throated sparrows during their peak migration in early October and mid-to-late April. American robins seem the same as ever here in Pittsburgh
Have you seen a change in white-throated sparrows? Let me know.
(photo from Wikimedia Commons, maps from Cornell University eBird Status and Trends; click on the captions to see the originals)
Oak tree in bloom with dangling pollen flowers (photo by Kate St. John)
25 April 2023
If your pollen allergies have gotten worse there’s a good reason for it. A study of North American pollen trends in the last 30 years, led by William R. L. Anderegg, found that pollen season is starting earlier, lasting longer and has higher pollen counts than in the 1990s because of climate change.
Yale Climate Connections reports “In Anderegg’s research on pollen in North America, he saw pollen seasons starting about 20 days earlier than they did in the 1990s” and pollen concentrations increased by 21%. The higher temperatures and carbon dioxide in today’s atmosphere make plants more productive and allergies worse.
Right now in Pittsburgh we are at the height of pollen season. Recurring hot weather, 15+ degrees above normal, caused the oaks to bloom early and pollen so intense that my car turned yellow while parked at Anderson Playground for just an hour last Friday.
Allergy sufferers get a double whammy here because the pollen is added to Pittsburgh’s poor air quality making it particularly dangerous for children and people with asthma and respiratory illness.
Last November eBird enhanced their Status and Trends website with cool interactive maps of overall abundance, weekly abundance, population trends and range for nearly 700 species. The population trends are fascinating for two reasons: northward movement and curious exceptions.
Many eastern species are moving their breeding ranges northward. For some it’s starkly obvious that they’re declining in the Southeastern U.S. and increasing in the northern U.S. and southern Canada. Click HERE to see 12 good examples at Cottonwood Post.
Blue jay (Cyanocitta cristata) trends are doubly fascinating. Jays are definitely moving north but with a curious exception in south Florida (why increasing there?). Check out their trends map. Blue is good, red is bad.
Most of Pennsylvania has no change in blue jay abundance but did you see the tiny red dot near Pittsburgh? Where is that decline? Drill into the map on the eBird website using these step-by-step screenshots to guide you.
As I zoomed in it became apparent that nothing has changed (i.e. white dots) for blue jays in our region until I found that red dot in Cranberry Township. I hovered my cursor over it and found that blue jays declined there 7.5% from 2007 to 2021. I wonder why…
Meanwhile wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) are the curious exception. Though declining overall their trends map doesn’t show the predictable north-south pattern.
Wood thrush singing (photo by Steve Gosser)
Wood thrushes are declining in the Northeast but increasing in the Southern Appalachians and Alabama. A line of “No Change” runs from approximately Kingston, Ontario to Charlottesville, Virginia. Again, I wonder why…
