9 June 2023

Plants are drooping, water levels are low, and clouds of dust engulf dirt roads in western Pennsylvania. It hasn’t rained for almost three weeks at a time of year that’s usually wet. Yesterday it became official. We’re in a drought.

Every week the U.S. Drought Monitor at University of Nebraska-Lincoln issues a nationwide drought assessment. Pennsylvania is labeled “SL” on this week’s map for evidence in both Short term and Long term indicators. (Click here for the latest Drought Map.)

Most of Pennsylvania, including Allegheny County, is in Moderate Drought.

The drought seems sudden but it’s been building for a while. Precipitation was above normal last year through January 2023 but starting in February it fell off. April and May were seriously below normal. June has been bone dry so far. As of today Pittsburgh has a year-to-date precipitation deficit of 4.55 inches.

Even the hardiest invasive plants are wilting in the city parks …

… small tributaries are completely dry …

… and the cascade pools in Schenley Parks’ Phipps Run are stagnant. Unfortunately stagnant water is a breeding ground for mosquitos, an unexpected consequence of drought.

The forecast calls for rain on Monday 12 June, but one day’s rain can’t overcome the 4.5+ inch deficit.

Hoping for more rain soon. Meanwhile check out these drought tips for lawns and camping at TribLive: Dry conditions expected to continue in Western Pennsylvania.

(photos by Kate St. John, maps from U.S. Drought Monitor)

6 June 2023

On Saturday evening Jonathan Nadle took a photo of the setting sun glowing pink with threads of smoke across its face. The color was the result of wildfire smoke drifting in from western Canada.

Today Pittsburgh and much of the northeastern U.S. are under an air quality alert because the smoke is now at ground level. We don’t see it as smoke — it looks like haze — but the particles have put our air quality forecast into Code Orange = “Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.” Young children, seniors, and those with respiratory problems should limit outdoor activities.

NBC News explains:

Millions of people across the Midwest are under dangerous air quality conditions Monday, as smoke from wildfires in eastern Canada wafts over the region.

Hazy skies have blanketed a wide swath of the country from the Ohio Valley to as far south as the Carolinas. Air quality advisories are in effect Monday in southeastern Minnesota and parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, as well as in more than 60 counties in Wisconsin.

The spike in air pollution comes from wildfires that have been raging in the Canadian provinces of Quebec and Nova Scotia.

… Canada is experiencing one of the worst starts to its wildfire season ever recorded.

— NBC News: Air quality levels in parts of the U.S. plunge as Canada wildfires rage, 5 June 2023

There are wildfires across much of Canada right now — west and east — but the fires affecting Pittsburgh today are mostly in Quebec and nearly all are out of control, displayed as red dots on Canada’s interactive wildfire map. Click here or on the screenshot below to see the interactive map.

For Pittsburgh the smoke is mostly an inconvenience but for Canadians it is dangerous and for the birds that nest in these forests it is deadly. The fires are happening where northern warblers breed including bay-breasted, blackpoll, palm, Cape May and Tennessee.

When we see fewer of these migrating warblers in the fall, the fires will be partly to blame.

Unfortunately as climate change heats up the Earth and reduces rainfall, we can also expect more fires in North America’s forests.

Click here to see AirNow’s interactive air quality map centered on Pittsburgh, PA

(see photo and map credits in the captions)

Air Quality UPDATES

28-30 June 2032:

Wildfire smoke is back again, worse than before.

6-7 June 2023:

7 June 2023, 5:00am: The winds have changed. Pittsburgh air is still Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups this morning but it is much worse elsewhere. It is Very Unhealthy from Harrisburg to Philadelphia (purple), and Hazardous to breathe in a wide swath of Ontario including Ottawa (brown).

6 June satellite map:

The Eastern US and Central Canada are suffering through one of their worst wildfire smoke events in recorded history.

New York City and Toronto have among the top 7 worst air qualities of any major city on Earth. pic.twitter.com/xt3JpyI7XB

— Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) June 6, 2023

4 January 2023

Rain. Rain. Rain! For two days it’s been raining in Pittsburgh while the high temperature holds at 61^oF. Total rainfall will be 1.4 inches, some of which splashed the Cathedral of Learning falconcam.

If the weather had been below freezing we’d be looking at 14 inches of snow! I’m glad it isn’t snowing but heavy rain in January got me thinking … Wasn’t the snow deeper when I was a kid?

I grew up in Pittsburgh so my memories of winter apply to where I live today, but are my memories distorted? Using Pittsburgh’s historical snowfall data I compared my 12 years of growing up in Pittsburgh(*) to the most recent 12 years.

The answer is mixed. There was more snow in winter when I was a kid (maximum winter total and highest minimum), but both the highest and lowest snowfall per month both occurred in the recent past — in fact in the same winter of 2020-21.

The wild swings in snowfall nowadays mirror the wild swings in temperature.

Remember how bitter cold it was only 11 days ago? Look at the temperature swing then (Christmas Eve 2022) and now (3 January 2023)!

So the answer is Yes & No. Yes, there was more snow in Pittsburgh when I was a kid. But, No, the snow is deeper today on rare occasions.

Curious about snowfall in Pittsburgh? Check out the historical data at NWS Pittsburgh and the Rain to Snow Calculator here.

(*) The span is 12 years because I moved to Pittsburgh when I was 6 years old.

(photo by Kate St. John, maps and data from the National Weather Service)

27 November 2022

The western U.S. has always been drier than the east but as climate change heats up the planet, drought has become more prevalent. NOAA’s quarterly weather outlooks now include a 3-month drought prediction along with temperature and precipitation forecasts. Some places are more likely to experience drought than others. Which states are more likely? Which are least?

The graphic above is based on Stacker’s article, States With the Worst Droughts, that ranks states by average percentage of land in drought from 2000 to March 2021. Listing the states in order, I grouped them in 10s with darkest Orange indicating the top ten drought states and darkest Green for the 10 wettest. (White = the middle 10)

• The top state for drought is Arizona. No surprise; it’s a desert.
• The state with the least drought is Ohio!
• Georgia and South Carolina stand alone with a lot more drought than their neighbors. Their drought ranking is like Kansas.
• Hawaii (dark orange) and Alaska (dark green) are at opposite extremes.

As climate change continues to unfold human populations will migrate from less habitable to more habitable locations. In the U.S. we can expect people to move west to northeast in the coming century — from more drought to less.

Wondering about your state’s ranking? Click here for the Stacker article.

NOAA’s 2022-23 winter weather outlook is here.

(at top, base map from Wikimedia Commons, precipitation outlook from NOAA; click on the captions to see the originals)