Category Archives: Climate Change

Birds at the Tipping Point

Climate Change, Musings & News
  • Chimney swift flying in Austin, Texas (photo by Jim McCullough, Creative Commons license, Wikimedia Commons)
    Chimney swift flying in Austin, Texas (photo by Jim McCullough, Creative Commons license, Wikimedia Commons)

20 October 2022

Just over a week ago the Cornell Lab of Ornithology published the 2022 State of the Birds in the U.S. The news was sobering. Population declines of 90 bird species have reached a tipping point into endangered status, having lost half or more of their populations since 1970.

70 of these species are on a trajectory to lose another 50% of their populations in the next 50 years if nothing changes. (That means losing another half of what’s left!) The slideshow above shows ten of my favorites that are falling off the cliff into the sixth mass extinction.

Of the 20 remaining species whose future is bleak I will especially miss the black-billed cuckoo, snowy owl, red-headed woodpecker, olive-sided flycatcher, wood thrush, and mourning, cerulean and Canada warblers.

Fortunately Cornell Lab describes actions we can take right now to turn this around, illustrating The Road to Recovery with one of the greatest recoveries of our lifetime: the peregrine falcon. We made a difference in the last 50 years and we can do it again. Click here to learn what you can do to help birds.

Peregrine falcon feeding young at Tarentum Bridge, May 2021 (photo by Lynn Mamros)

(photo credits in the captions. All of these photos were used in prior articles.)

Hurricane Pushed Birds to Scotland

Climate Change, Migration
Yellow-rumped warbler (“Myrtle warbler”), US, 2018 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

9 October 2022

There was much excitement in British birding this week when two yellow-rumped warblers (Setophaga coronata) and a first-ever least bittern (Ixobrychus exilis) were sighted in the Shetland Islands, the northern tip of Scotland.

Both species are found only in the Americas but all three birds crossed more than 2,200 miles of the North Atlantic non-stop, likely forced offshore from the Canadian Maritimes or Newfoundland to escape Hurricane Fiona, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in Canada.

Possible origin & definite destination of 3 North American vagrants to The Shetlands, 5-7 October 2022 (map from Wikimedia Commons; markup by Kate St. John)

Fiona made landfall in Nova Scotia on 24 September.

Track of Hurricane Fiona, 2022 (map from Wikimedia Commons)

The birds were found more than 10 days later in the Shetlands on 5-7 October. It is hard to imagine their ordeal. The yellow-rumped warblers seem fine but the least bittern was exhausted and underweight and was taken to rehab where it died overnight.

Catch the excitement of seeing birds far from home in these tweets from British birders.

I am impressed that the warblers gravitated to the only trees in the landscape. This is similar to warbler behavior at Magee Marsh in May when they are found in small patches of trees — the only trees among miles of marsh and farmland.

The least bittern was found hunched on the shore, not in good shape. It died that night in rehab.

9 October 2022. There’s more: A first-ever Empidonax flycatcher in Ireland and a Baltimore Oriole in Devon, UK. Unfortunately the Baltimore oriole was eaten by a sparrowhawk (an Accipiter).

15 October 2022: Blackburnian warbler at Isles of Scilly off the coast of Cornwall UK

(photo from Wikimedia Commons; embedded tweets)

When Will The Chipmunks Disappear?

Climate Change, Mammals
Eastern chipmunk (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

3 October 2022

The hardest thing to notice in Nature is the date of an absence. When did the last junco leave in the spring? When did the last groundhog go into hibernation?

Right now eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus) are busy gathering nuts to store in their underground burrows for the winter. As the season changes and temperatures drop they will disappear into their burrows to enter torpor, sleeping off and on through the winter.

The warm winters of climate change can fool them into not entering torpor but the result is deadly. Only 10% survive. Find out why in this vintage blog:

Here Today, Asleep Tomorrow

Meanwhile I will hope our chipmunks disappear and will try to figure when they do it.

Here’s how I notice an absence: I write down every day when I do see them and then scan my notes for days when I’ve not logged them anymore.

(photo from Wikimedia Commons; click on the link to see the original)

Hurricane Rain

Climate Change, Weather & Sky
Hurricane Ian spins northward (GOES East satellite Great Lakes sector, 30 Sept 2022, 3:40am to 5:30am from NOAA)

30 September 2022, 6am

UPDATE 30 SEPT, 6 PM. See UPDATED info at end

After wrecking a swath of Florida, Hurricane Ian popped out over the Atlantic Ocean, gained strength, and is bearing down on the Carolinas. Though Pittsburgh is quite far inland we will see the remnants of Hurricane Ian’s rain on Saturday.

These maps show total rainfall forecasts for the next three days as Hurricane Ian moves up the eastern U.S.

  • Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, Fri 30 Sep - Sat 1 Oct 2022 (map from NOAA)

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, Continental US, 30 Sept to 3 Oct 2022 (maps from NOAA)

Pittsburgh will receive less than an inch of precipitation because Ian is tracking south and east of here. Fortunately this is far different from our experience of Hurricane Agnes 50 years ago.

Hurricane Agnes, 50 Years
UPDATE 30 SEPT, 6 PM. I have corrected the captions on the slideshow based on an email from Dick Rhoton. Note that the slideshow maps show total rainfall potential, no matter what cause.

This map shows rainfall potential from Hurricane Ian alone — anything greater than an inch — as of 30 Sept 2022, 6am.

Hurricane Ian total rainfall potential, 30 Sep through 2 Oct 2022 (map from NOAA)

(maps and animation from NOAA; click on the captions to see the originals)

More Heat Ahead

Climate Change, Weather & Sky
Heat at sunset (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

20 September 2022

Now that summer’s heat is over we may be fooled into thinking climate change is no longer affecting us. Unfortunately, above normal temperatures are predicted for most of the U.S. for the next three months. Southeastern Alaska is the only place with any chance of being cooler than normal.

U.S. 3-month temperature outlook, Oct-Dec 2022 (map from NOAA climate.gov)

Heat and drought often go hand in hand.

The seasonal drought outlook through the end of 2022 indicates New England will finally see a break in their drought, perhaps hastened by rain from a downgraded hurricane. But there is no help for the American West where the drought persists and gains new ground (see yellow on the map).

U.S. 3-month drought outlook (map from NOAA)

The drought in California is particularly dire.

California drought (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

Why does this matter to the rest of us? Because the worst drought is in the Central Valley and that’s where more than half of the U.S. fruits, vegetables, and nuts are grown.

California Central Valley: topo map (Wikimedia) + Drought status map, 15 Sep 2022 (UNL drought monitor)

(photo credits in each caption; click on the captions to see the originals)

Looking Back: Solastalgia For Birds

Climate Change, Musings & News
(photo from Wikimedia Commons)

6 September 2022

During fall migration bird numbers are at their highest as the adult population is joined by their recent young. I look forward to the variety of fall warblers and large flocks of chimney swifts, but this year — again — there are fewer migrants than I remember. My mood is dampened by solastalgia for birds.

Solastalgia is a new concept developed to give greater meaning and clarity to environmentally induced distress. As opposed to nostalgia–the melancholia or homesickness experienced by individuals when separated from a loved home–solastalgia is the distress that is produced by environmental change impacting on people while they are directly connected to their home environment. 

— US NIH: Solastalgia: The distress caused by environmental change

A 2019 bird population study headed by Cornell Lab of Ornithology quantified what I’ve been sensing. In the 50 years since 1970 North America’s total population of birds dropped by 3 billion. However it feels more recent because it has not been gradual. Half of that loss occurred in the past 15 years.

Fourteen years ago I noticed a decline in common nighthawks (Chordeiles minor) that used to migrate in flocks of 10-20 over my old neighborhood during the 20th century. In 2008 their numbers dropped precipitously. Nowadays I am lucky to see a single bird.

Common nighthawk (photo by Chuck Tague)
Common nighthawk (photo by Chuck Tague obtained in 2015)

Chimney swifts (Chaetura pelagica) were my consolation but now they prompt solastalgia. Two years ago I counted more than 2,200 swifts roosting at Cathedral Mansions chimney during fall migration, but just last year their numbers declined sharply. My highest count in 2021 was only 100. Fifty is my highest count so far this year.

Chimney swift trio (photo by Jeff Davis obtained in 2013)

Solastalgia is aptly summed up: “Sometimes you leave a place. Sometimes it leaves you.“

Despite the sense of loss it is still good to be outdoors, it is still lovely to look at birds, and it is healthy to let go of the past and gracefully embrace the present.

For more information on bird decline and some good vibes for the future see 3billionbirds.org.

(see photo captions and links for the credits)

Antarctica is Melting Faster Than We Thought

Climate Change
Icebergs in Antarctica (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

15 August 2022

The ice on Antarctica is a dynamic system that gains 2000 cubic kilometers of ice per year from precipitation and loses it to melting and icebergs. Unfortunately the continent is losing more ice than it gains. This month two new studies from NASA JPL revealed that the ice is disappearing twice as fast as previously estimated.

Researchers found that the edge of the Antarctic ice sheet has been shedding icebergs faster than the ice can be replaced, doubling previous estimates of ice loss from Antarctic’s floating ice shelves. Ice loss from calving has weakened the ice shelves and allowed Antarctic glaciers to flow more rapidly to the ocean, accelerating the rate of global sea level rise. …

In fact, the findings suggest that greater losses can be expected: Antarctica’s largest ice shelves all appear to be headed for major calving events in the next 10 to 20 years.

— NASA Studies find previously unknown loss of Antarctic ice sheet
The 200-foot-tall (60-meter-tall) front of the Getz Ice Shelf in Antarctica is scored with cracks where icebergs are likely to break off (photo from NASA/GSFC/OIB)

In the interior of the continent ice loss is much harder to see as melt water seeps through the ice into lakes and streams beneath, then to the sea. The only clue to this melt is that the glaciers lose altitude.

To measure this ice loss NASA analyzed data gathered by satellites passing over Antarctica from 1985 to 2020. The illustration below shows a pass made by the ICESat-1 satellite whose mission ended in 2010.

ICESat data swath over Antarctica (image from Wikimedia Commons)

NASA’s map of the elevation changes shows that a few places gained elevation (blue) but more of them lost. The worst melting was in the red zones.

(map from NASA JPL, arrow added by Kate St. John)

Why does this matter?

As the glaciers melt on Antarctica and Greenland their water raises sea level around the world, but the rise is not equal everywhere. Uneven gravitational forces cause tiny elevation changes in sea level, called sea level fingerprints, that peak in the tropics and have the deepest valleys near melting glaciers. Those few cities near melting glaciers will see a drop in sea level while those farthest away from glaciers will have the highest rise.

For instance Reykjavik, Iceland, which has melting glaciers of its own and is close to Greenland, will see a net loss of sea level (below).

Reykjavik, Iceland: Net sea level loss because they are close to glaciers (map from NASA JPL Gradient Fingerprint Mapping Sea Level)

Meanwhile New York City and London will see a big sea level rise because of Antarctica + Greenland. (For more information see Which Glaciers Will Flood Your City.)

New York City: Antarctica’s ice melt will affect it more than Greenland’s (map from NASA JPL Gradient Fingerprint Mapping Sea Level)

To those far from Antarctica, it will be bad news that the ice is melting so fast.

See NASA’s Antarctica studies at NATURE: Antarctic calving loss rivals ice-shelf thinning and ESSD: Elevation change of the Antarctic ice sheet 1985-2020.

(icebergs and ICESat illustration from Wikimedia Commons. All other media from NASA. Click on the captions to see the originals)

So Hot. Getting Hotter

Climate Change, Weather & Sky
Boiling water (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

22 July 2022

This week has been and will be unusually hot around the world. On Tuesday in Britain, where there is virtually no air conditioning, the high temperature was a record-breaking 40.3 degrees Celsius, 104.5 degrees F! It was as hot as Phoenix, Arizona without the respite of air conditioning and community cooling centers.

Red sun through smoke of the Woolsey Fire, California, 9 Nov 2018 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

Back in the 1970s and 1990s climate change was slow to ramp up so we fooled ourselves by saying (1) Nothing’s changed yet so it’s not going to change, and (2) Climate change will be manageable because it won’t happen fast.

Wrong on both counts. This animation from NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies shows world temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit, 1880 – 2021. The fastest changes have occurred in the last 5-10 years!

Temperature anomalies in Fahrenheit, 1880-2021 (from NASA, Goddard Institute of Space Studies)

So hot! And getting hotter.

(photos from Wikimedia Commons, animation from NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies)

Today’s Flood is Tomorrow’s High Tide

Climate Change, Water and Shore
High tide in Miami, 16 Oct 2016 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

27 February 2022

Much of the coastal U.S. floods during violent ocean storms but some places, like Miami, flood several times a year during high “spring” or “king” tides because of climate-driven sea level rise. This month a new report from NASA and NOAA recalculates how deep the water will be just 30 years from now. It doesn’t look good.

By 2050, the average rise will be 4 to 8 inches along the Pacific, 10 to 14 inches along the Atlantic, and 14 to 18 inches along the Gulf.

— WIRED Magazine: Sea Level Rise Will Be Catastrophic—and Unequal

As Wired Magazine points out, these amounts are averages because water basin topography, water temperature (warmer water takes up more space), land subsidence, and glacial rebound make unique results for each location.

Comparing just two cities on different coasts neatly illustrates what a striking difference these factors can make. Galveston, Texas, where the land is slumping, could see almost 2 feet of rise by the year 2050. Meanwhile, Anchorage, Alaska, could see 8 inches of sea level drop, thanks to the fact that its land is actually rising following the departure of long-gone glaciers.

— WIRED Magazine: Sea Level Rise Will Be Catastrophic—and Unequal

The report indicates that a 2-foot rise is already locked in for 2100 because of past greenhouse gas emissions. If we don’t stop emitting *now* we can expect an additional 1.5 to 5 feet for a total of 3.5 to 7 feet by the end of this century.

NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer shows Galveston, Texas, below, in three scenarios: current sea level, +2 feet (expected by 2050) and +7 feet (in 2100 if nothing changes). In 30 years Bayou Vista, Tiki Island and Jamaica Beach will be gone. A 7-foot rise by 2100 wipes out most of the area.

  • Galveston, Texas at current sea level (map from NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer)

No matter what happens the results will be unequal. Southern Alaska (blue dots) looks good under both scenarios. The Gulf and Atlantic coasts will be in various degrees of trouble.

The report is sobering because it’s unfolding so soon. If you’re 30 years old now, some Gulf Coast places will be gone by the time you’re 60.

Road Ends in Water (photo by eagle102 on Flickr via Creative Commons license)

Today’s catastrophic flood will be tomorrow’s high tide.

Curious about your favorite coastal places? Look them up on NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Map Viewer.

(images from Wikimedia Commons, NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer and NASA & NOAA’s 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report; click on the captions to see the originals)

Warmest Ever, Yet Again

Climate Change
Sunset over the Atlantic (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

20 January 2022

Now that 2021’s global temperature data has been finalized we know the score.

2021 is one of the seven warmest years on record. The warmest seven years have all been since 2015, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 constituting the top three.

— 2021 One of Seven Warmest Years on Record, wmo data shows

Here are the Top 10, all within very recent memory.

Top 10 warmest years on record (graph from Wikipedia: Instrumental Temperature Record via NOAA as of 20 Jan 2022)

If you’ve lived in the northern hemisphere for the last 50 years, things have changed dramatically in your lifetime.

image from Wikimedia Commons

But a static map doesn’t tell the story. In NASA’s Global Temperature Anomalies from 1880 to 2021 watch how the temperature changes for your home area since 1880.

Warmest ever. Yet again.

(photo, table and map from Wikimedia Commons, animation from NASA Scientific Visualization Studio; click on the captions to see the originals)