After wrecking a swath of Florida, Hurricane Ian popped out over the Atlantic Ocean, gained strength, and is bearing down on the Carolinas. Though Pittsburgh is quite far inland we will see the remnants of Hurricane Ian’s rain on Saturday.
These maps show total rainfall forecasts for the next three days as Hurricane Ian moves up the eastern U.S.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, Fri 30 Sep - Sat 1 Oct 2022 (map from NOAA)
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, Sat 1 Oct - Sun 2 Oct 2022 (map from NOAA)
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, Sun 2 Oct - Mon 3 Oct 2022 (map from NOAA)
Pittsburgh will receive less than an inch of precipitation because Ian is tracking south and east of here. Fortunately this is far different from our experience of Hurricane Agnes 50 years ago.
UPDATE 30 SEPT, 6 PM. I have corrected the captions on the slideshow based on an email from Dick Rhoton. Note that the slideshow maps show total rainfall potential, no matter what cause.
This map shows rainfall potential from Hurricane Ian alone — anything greater than an inch — as of 30 Sept 2022, 6am.
Hurricane Ian total rainfall potential, 30 Sep through 2 Oct 2022 (map from NOAA)
(maps and animation from NOAA; click on the captions to see the originals)
Now that summer’s heat is over we may be fooled into thinking climate change is no longer affecting us. Unfortunately, above normal temperatures are predicted for most of the U.S. for the next three months. Southeastern Alaska is the only place with any chance of being cooler than normal.
The seasonal drought outlook through the end of 2022 indicates New England will finally see a break in their drought, perhaps hastened by rain from a downgraded hurricane. But there is no help for the American West where the drought persists and gains new ground (see yellow on the map).
During fall migration bird numbers are at their highest as the adult population is joined by their recent young. I look forward to the variety of fall warblers and large flocks of chimney swifts, but this year — again — there are fewer migrants than I remember. My mood is dampened by solastalgia for birds.
Solastalgia is a new concept developed to give greater meaning and clarity to environmentally induced distress. As opposed to nostalgia–the melancholia or homesickness experienced by individuals when separated from a loved home–solastalgia is the distress that is produced by environmental change impacting on people while they are directly connected to their home environment.
Fourteen years ago I noticed a decline in common nighthawks (Chordeiles minor) that used to migrate in flocks of 10-20 over my old neighborhood during the 20th century. In 2008 their numbers dropped precipitously. Nowadays I am lucky to see a single bird.
Common nighthawk (photo by Chuck Tague obtained in 2015)
Chimney swifts (Chaetura pelagica) were my consolation but now they prompt solastalgia. Two years ago I counted more than 2,200 swifts roosting at Cathedral Mansions chimney during fall migration, but just last year their numbers declined sharply. My highest count in 2021 was only 100. Fifty is my highest count so far this year.
Chimney swift trio (photo by Jeff Davis obtained in 2013)
Despite the sense of loss it is still good to be outdoors, it is still lovely to look at birds, and it is healthy to let go of the past and gracefully embrace the present.
For more information on bird decline and some good vibes for the future see 3billionbirds.org.
The ice on Antarctica is a dynamic system that gains 2000 cubic kilometers of ice per year from precipitation and loses it to melting and icebergs. Unfortunately the continent is losing more ice than it gains. This month two new studies from NASA JPL revealed that the ice is disappearing twice as fast as previously estimated.
Researchers found that the edge of the Antarctic ice sheet has been shedding icebergs faster than the ice can be replaced, doubling previous estimates of ice loss from Antarctic’s floating ice shelves. Ice loss from calving has weakened the ice shelves and allowed Antarctic glaciers to flow more rapidly to the ocean, accelerating the rate of global sea level rise. …
In fact, the findings suggest that greater losses can be expected: Antarctica’s largest ice shelves all appear to be headed for major calving events in the next 10 to 20 years.
The 200-foot-tall (60-meter-tall) front of the Getz Ice Shelf in Antarctica is scored with cracks where icebergs are likely to break off (photo from NASA/GSFC/OIB)
In the interior of the continent ice loss is much harder to see as melt water seeps through the ice into lakes and streams beneath, then to the sea. The only clue to this melt is that the glaciers lose altitude.
To measure this ice loss NASA analyzed data gathered by satellites passing over Antarctica from 1985 to 2020. The illustration below shows a pass made by the ICESat-1 satellite whose mission ended in 2010.
NASA’s map of the elevation changes shows that a few places gained elevation (blue) but more of them lost. The worst melting was in the red zones.
(map from NASA JPL, arrow added by Kate St. John)
Why does this matter?
As the glaciers melt on Antarctica and Greenland their water raises sea level around the world, but the rise is not equal everywhere. Uneven gravitational forces cause tiny elevation changes in sea level, called sea level fingerprints, that peak in the tropics and have the deepest valleys near melting glaciers. Those few cities near melting glaciers will see a drop in sea level while those farthest away from glaciers will have the highest rise.
For instance Reykjavik, Iceland, which has melting glaciers of its own and is close to Greenland, will see a net loss of sea level (below).
Meanwhile New York City and London will see a big sea level rise because of Antarctica + Greenland. (For more information see Which Glaciers Will Flood Your City.)
This week has been and will be unusually hot around the world. On Tuesday in Britain, where there is virtually no air conditioning, the high temperature was a record-breaking 40.3 degrees Celsius, 104.5 degrees F! It was as hot as Phoenix, Arizona without the respite of air conditioning and community cooling centers.
Back in the 1970s and 1990s climate change was slow to ramp up so we fooled ourselves by saying (1) Nothing’s changed yet so it’s not going to change, and (2) Climate change will be manageable because it won’t happen fast.
Much of the coastal U.S. floods during violent ocean storms but some places, like Miami, flood several times a year during high “spring” or “king” tides because of climate-driven sea level rise. This month a new report from NASA and NOAA recalculates how deep the water will be just 30 years from now. It doesn’t look good.
By 2050, the average rise will be 4 to 8 inches along the Pacific, 10 to 14 inches along the Atlantic, and 14 to 18 inches along the Gulf.
As Wired Magazine points out, these amounts are averages because water basin topography, water temperature (warmer water takes up more space), land subsidence, and glacial rebound make unique results for each location.
Comparing just two cities on different coasts neatly illustrates what a striking difference these factors can make. Galveston, Texas, where the land is slumping, could see almost 2 feet of rise by the year 2050. Meanwhile, Anchorage, Alaska, could see 8 inches of sea level drop, thanks to the fact that its land is actually rising following the departure of long-gone glaciers.
The report indicates that a 2-foot rise is already locked in for 2100 because of past greenhouse gas emissions. If we don’t stop emitting *now* we can expect an additional 1.5 to 5 feet for a total of 3.5 to 7 feet by the end of this century.
NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer shows Galveston, Texas, below, in three scenarios: current sea level, +2 feet (expected by 2050) and +7 feet (in 2100 if nothing changes). In 30 years Bayou Vista, Tiki Island and Jamaica Beach will be gone. A 7-foot rise by 2100 wipes out most of the area.
Galveston, Texas at current sea level (map from NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer)
Galveston, Texas with 2 foot sea level rise (map from NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer)
Galveston, Texas with 7 foot sea level rise (map from NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer)
No matter what happens the results will be unequal. Southern Alaska (blue dots) looks good under both scenarios. The Gulf and Atlantic coasts will be in various degrees of trouble.
The report is sobering because it’s unfolding so soon. If you’re 30 years old now, some Gulf Coast places will be gone by the time you’re 60.
(images from Wikimedia Commons, NOAA’s Sea Level Rise Viewer and NASA & NOAA’s 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report; click on the captions to see the originals)
Now that 2021’s global temperature data has been finalized we know the score.
2021 is one of the seven warmest years on record. The warmest seven years have all been since 2015, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 constituting the top three.
On 26 December 2021 the record high temperature for Alaska — for the entire state — was set at Kodiak Island when it reached 67oF at a tidal gauge. This was so unusual that the National Weather Service triple checked to make sure. Kodiak Airport was 65 degrees, Cold Bay was 62.
?The Kodiak Tide Gauge station recorded an amazing 67°F yesterday. This is a new statewide temperature record for December. The Kodiak Airport recorded 65°F. This broke their monthly record by 9°F! The weather balloon launched at the same time confirms these amazing readings. pic.twitter.com/IuTPCGOrFU
Other hi temp records were set y’day across the Bering. Cold Bay obliterated its daily record by 18º, also setting a monthly record for Dec. It is the warmest temp recorded between Oct. 27 and May 7, so monthly records would’ve been set in Nov, Jan, Feb, Mar, and Apr.#AKwxpic.twitter.com/umQXivoGgP
Meanwhile, across the Gulf of Alaska from the record heat was a record low temperature of 0 degrees F at Ketchican.
Ketchikan did it again yesterday, by breaking it’s record low temp of 5F from 1917! when it recorded 0. Other locations also broke their daily low temp yesterday Juneau forecast office (-7F), Haine#2(-2f), Klawock airport (3F), Pelican(10F) & Thorne Bay (0F) #akwx .@KRBDRadiopic.twitter.com/cruI3QeUe5
How could Alaska have such high and low extremes on the same day? The wildly wobbling jet stream pushed warm air up the western side of the Gulf of Alaska and poured cold air down its eastern side. This jet stream map, centered on the Gulf of Alaska, is explained at Axios: Alaska sets December temperature record at 67 degrees.
[image embedded from Axios] Wind speed and direction at about 30,000 feet above the surface on Dec. 26 centered on Alaska. This shows the northerly bend to the jet stream, which allowed milder air to flow in from the south. (Earth.nullschool.net)
We often hear the word normal on the weather report as in: “Today’s high was 64 degrees F with a low of 49F and was 23 degrees above normal.” (That was yesterday’s temperature in Pittsburgh and, yes, it was 23 degrees above normal.)
Climate normals are always a 30-year average of temperature and precipitation as recorded at each U.S. weather station. Recalculated at the end of each decade, the new normals announced in May 2021 are based on the most recent 30 years of data: 1991-2020.
Normal is a rolling average and it keeps getting hotter. The 10 maps above compare each decade’s normal temperature to the 20th century’s average. We have moved from cool blue (top left) to angry red (bottom right).
Normal might not feel hot for people in their early 30s because it’s what they remember throughout their lives, but for retired people like me the current normal is the climate of less than half my life.
I remember the snowy Decembers of my youth. Even without the graphs I can tell the normal temperature has changed.
Fifteen years ago Pittsburgh birders waited for migrating waterfowl to start arriving in late October and watched as numbers peaked in November and dropped when our lakes froze in December. We remember that schedule and have been visiting wetlands since late October but waterfowl are still scarce. Low variety, low numbers.
Why aren’t the ducks here yet?
In a word, it’s not cold enough.
Except for the few species that are hardwired for more dependable long-distance migrations, such as blue-winged teal, waterfowl are adapted to migrate only as far as is necessary for them to find food, open water, and places to rest. For some species, it may take several consecutive days of freezing temperatures and snow cover to push them southward.
Ducks save energy and avoid danger by staying put when conditions allow. They also shortcut their trip north in the spring by not traveling too far from their breeding grounds.
So we’ll just have to wait for a week of real winter before we’ll see good flocks of migrating ducks.
Follow the weather up north to get a prediction of waterfowl arrival. Did it freeze in Saskatchewan, Manitoba or Ontario? Did the Great Lakes start to freeze? What about Lake Erie? (click the link to see Great Lakes ice conditions.)
When the ducks get here they might not leave until spring if our lakes stay open.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, Fri 30 Sep - Sat 1 Oct 2022 (map from NOAA)
