11 November 2024

In late October all of Pennsylvania went into a Drought Watch. We are not alone.

Every US state except Alaska and Kentucky is facing drought, an unprecedented number.

More than 150 million people and 318 million acres of crops are affected by drought after a summer of record heat.

— Guardian: Nearly all of US states are facing droughts, an unprecedented number

As of 5 November the drought is Severe to Extreme in Southeastern Ohio, West Virginia, western Maryland and the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania.

The amazing thing is that it took only four months to get that way.

In April the Monongahela River flooded the Duck Hollow parking lot — twice — when we had two downpour days of more than 2.6 inches each.

Then it stopped raining in June and the weather turned exceptionally hot. A drought began in July that became Severe that month in West Virginia and western Maryland.

By late August the boating season was over at Youghiogheny River Lake due to low water. On 1 November when Judy Stark took these pictures, the lake had dropped so far that an old bridge and the foundations of a submerged town were revealed above low water.

In just four months the Monongahela River switched from flood to drought. Since it flows from West Virginia to Pittsburgh, it’s useful to look at precipitation in Morgantown, WV to understand these extremes.

The graph below shows Morgantown’s 2024 monthly precipitation through yesterday, 10 November. Normal precipitation is in green, Actual is in blue. Notice it was at or above normal until July and severely below normal in September and October. (“Normal” precipitation in August came in two downpours that ran off rather than soaking in.)

Yesterday it rained in the Monongahela watershed for the first time in weeks, a long soaking rain that lasted all day. In Morgantown it accumulated just over an inch (1.02″) and was enough to match their month-to-date “normal” for November.

We’re so thankful for yesterday’s soaking rain but we’ll need more than one day to end the drought.

Fingers crossed. Thursday looks good for rain.

p.s. Yes, Sunday’s rain was not enough. This evening KDKA TV News showed footage of brush fires over the weekend, including one that was burning while it was raining.

The NWS meteorologist in this video, Colton Milcharek, says that it will take a rainy day like yesterday every week for 5 weeks for us to get out of this long term drought without mishaps.

24 October 2024

Yesterday I saw a video of a scientist choking up at the prospect of Atlantic Ocean circulation failing. Why is he sad?

Yesterday 44 of the world’s leading climate scientists wrote an open letter about collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation (AMOC)

When I interviewed one of them about the consequences of AMOC reaching a tipping point he could barely keep it together. ? pic.twitter.com/Xsu0po5iZs

— Philip Boucher-Hayes (@boucherhayes) October 22, 2024

(If you don’t see the video above, click on this link.)

The speaker is one of 44 climate scientists who released an open letter this week warning that by 2050 a tipping point will likely cause the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to fail, making northeastern Europe much colder and ushering in a host of other adverse effects. He is from Britain and 2050 is just 26 years away.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the main ocean current system in the Atlantic Ocean and a major component of Earth’s ocean circulation. It transports heat and salinity northward and returns cold water to the south. —- paraphrased from Wikipedia

Climate scientists have been studying AMOC for decades because they realize that as Greenland melts, it dumps freshwater into the North Atlantic. The freshwater influx slows the northern end of the AMOC and that messes up the whole system.

We (Americans) haven’t paid much attention to this because we think it will only affect Europe but “messing up the whole system” will change the planet completely. Adverse effects include:

• Northeastern Europe will get much colder
• A new Ice Age will begin so the entire Northern Hemisphere, ourselves included, will get colder. See Warming Up to the Next Ice Age.
• The Gulf Stream won’t transport water away from North America (the far end is chopped off) so, within a matter of years, sea level will rise one-to-three feet on the East Coast.
• The tropical rain belt will move south, disrupting wet and dry seasons in the Amazon and Africa.

This 13-minute video from PBS describes what AMOC is, how it affects us, and what will go wrong when it fails.

For a relatively quick synopsis, see The Guardian: ‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation.