This year’s El Niño has made it too warm for snow on Christmas. Way too warm!
Today’s forecast high of 65o F is almost 30 degrees above normal.
In Pittsburgh it’s going to feel like Christmas in Florida without the palm trees. Florida will be hotter than normal, too.
No snow, no skiing east of the Mississippi.
We’ll just have to dream …
(photo by Steve Gosser)
Now matter where you are on Tuesday December 22 at 4:48 am UTC — in Calcutta, India (above) or the frozen Yukon — you’ll experience the northern solstice. (NOTE that December 22, 4:48am is Universal Time! In Pittsburgh the solstice is at 11:48pm on Monday December 21.)
Here at latitude 40o North we think the solstice is a northern daylight event but it’s actually an astronomical event that happens everywhere on Earth at the same moment. At the North Pole there’s nothing to see; it’s been dark for a long time. In Australia they’re having their longest summer day.
In Pittsburgh we reached our shortest number of (rounded) minutes on December 17 — 9 hours and 17 minutes — and we’ll stay there, gaining only seconds per day, until December 26. Then on the last day of the year we’ll begin to gain a minute a day. At last!
Here’s good news for people with Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD): We’re going to turn the corner soon.
(photo by Biswarup Ganguly via Wikimedia Commons. Click on the image to see the original)
Just over a week ago Fran Bungert was walking in South Park with her husband and dogs when she came upon some violets in bloom and sent me this picture from her cellphone.
November is a very odd time for violets (Viola sororia sororia). They normally bloom from April to June.
Are they confused by our warm El Niño autumn? Or have some violets always bloomed in November and I’ve just not paid attention?
What do you think?
(photo by Fran Bungert)
Ever since May’s dry weather, Marianne Atkinson and I have kept up a lively email conversation about drought and rain in our respective hometowns, Dubois and Pittsburgh.
Dubois has been short-changed on rainfall this year despite June’s excessive wet weather. Most months have been so dry that June’s 3.36″ above normal could not overcome the drought.
Even their “good” rainfall statistics are misleading because most of it falls in a single heavy downpour event. As of today, Dubois received 1.3 inches of rain in August but 98% of it fell in one 24 hour period — August 10-11.
We shouldn’t be surprised. Climatologists predict that as the climate heats up western Pennsylvania’s weather will change from gentle rains to frequent heavy downpours.
Meanwhile Marianne watches the weather radar closely. When rain is predicted will her garden get any of it? No. As the storm clouds approach they usually part north and south, missing Dubois completely. She sent me this screenshot of a recent “rainy” day from Accuweather.
I’ve seen this phenomenon, too. On Monday night Pittsburgh got a trace while Youngstown and West Virginia were slammed.
Is your town suffering from localized drought? Have you noticed this parting-of-the-clouds phenomenon?
It reminds me of Arizona’s monsoon.
(photo by Kate St. John)
Throw Back Thursday (TBT):
If you’ve seen me outdoors when a thunderstorm’s approaching you know that I take lightning safety so seriously that I go inside before everyone else. I like to think it’s because I know too much.
Some of that knowledge was collected in 2011 when I researched the facts for this article on Lightning. Once you start looking there are plenty of harrowing stories.
U.S. lightning safety has changed since 2011. Back then I wrote about the Lightning Crouch but it’s been discredited unless you’re stuck outdoors very far from shelter. The new motto says run for shelter: When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors.
Yet I wonder … is my level of concern about lightning borne out by statistics? It depends on what’s about to hit you. Here are some death/injury facts from 2012 when the U.S. population was 314,100,000 (314.1 million puts the numbers in perspective).
| Cause, 2012 in U.S. | Dead | Injured |
| Lightning | 28 | 212 |
| Pedestrians hit by trains | 442 | 405 |
| Pedestrians hit by motor vehicles | 4,743 | 76,000 |
| Motor vehicle deaths/injuries | 33,561 | 2,360,000 |
Clearly lightning is much less likely to kill you than a motor vehicle. On the other hand, there are far more vehicles than there are lightning bolts and far more hours spent in vehicles than outdoors during storms.
So drive safely, don’t drink and drive (alcohol accounts for 1/3 of the deaths), look both ways when you cross the street, and … when thunder roars I’m still going indoors.
(Thunderhead with lightning, photo by jcpjr from Shutterstock)
p.s. I’ve included trains in the list because Westinghouse Bridge peregrine fans are no longer allowed near the railroad tracks. Trains are the most deadly of all the dangers.
At the end of May I lamented that my backyard was dry and cracked while 27 counties in Pennsylvania were under a Drought Watch.
Conditions have changed significantly.
From a May rain deficit of 1.23 inches, Pittsburgh now has a surplus of 2.00″ in the first 23 days of June. (Normal in Pittsburgh is 3.95″ for May and 3.30″ to the 23rd of June.) Yes it’s wet!
Around western Pennsylvania it’s wet elsewhere, too. New Castle got 2.32″ in yesterday’s storms alone! Johnstown is 6.5″ above normal for the month (300% of normal) and Dubois stands at 1.85″ above normal for June 23.
The wet weather has caused flash floods, flooded basements and another more subtle problem: fungus.
On Monday I noticed that the tulip trees in Schenley Park and at Phipps’s outdoor garden have brown curled leaves at the top. Worried that we had another forest pest on our hands I emailed this photo to Phil Gruszka, my favorite tree expert at the Pittsburgh Parks Conservancy. He says its anthracnose.
Anthacnose is a group of fungi that infect shade trees, usually browning their leaves but sometimes infecting their twigs, bark and fruit. Each tree species has its own specific fungus pest. The one that infects tulip trees attacks the leaves.
In large stands of trees there’s no practical treatment for anthracnose. Though it may weaken the trees it doesn’t kill them outright and they get a respite if the weather changes. The fungi go away when it’s dry.
When will it be dry? … Do we dare ask that question?
p.s. Libby in New Castle, Marianne in Dubois area, and Marcy in Indiana County, how’s the weather out there?
(photo by Kate St. John)
The ground was parched and cracked in my backyard yesterday morning, so I looked forward to the thunderstorms predicted in the afternoon.
It rained north and west of here but only a trace in my backyard and at Pittsburgh International Airport.
The real rain missed us again.
(image composite from the National Weather Service /FAA)
This week’s hot and sunny weather has been 14-16 degrees above normal — so hot that peregrines are panting at their nest.
The official thermometer said our high was 85F yesterday but at the Cathedral of Learning peregrines’ nest it was probably in the high 90’s by late morning because the rocky surface faces south in full sun.
The peregrines adapted, switching from incubating the eggs (which adds heat) to merely shading them for air circulation. But that meant Dorothy and E2 had to stand in full sun to create the shade. No wonder E2 is panting, above, with his wings open.
During the worst of the heat the pair relieved each other more often. Dorothy gave E2 a break just after noon and, with the eggs in shadow, she took the opportunity to sunbathe. The sun probably felt good because she’d spent the last two hours in the shade.
Dorothy and E2 will be panting a lot in the next few days. The forecast calls for sun with highs of 86-87F degrees.
Yes, it’s going to be hot.
(photos from the National Aviary snapshot camera at University of Pittsburgh)
p.s. On Friday, May 8 the high temperature in Pittsburgh was 19 degrees above normal.
What a slow spring! Last week it snowed in western Pennsylvania. With an inch on the ground in Du Bois, Marianne Atkinson noticed that the forsythia blossoms stood out but they looked very odd.
In her own yard the forsythia had flowered near the ground but the top looked dead. Did other shrubs have this problem? As she traveled around town she took photos of other forsythia bushes and discovered that all of them looked like this. The buds on top were winter-killed.
Why were the bottoms of the bushes OK? With a little research Marianne found:
We had a second very cold winter in a row, with occasional temperatures in the well below 0 range. We also had about 18 inches of snow cover for about 2 ½ months this winter. I thought that the snow cover may have acted as insulation for the lower forsythia flower buds and it is true! You can read about this phenomenon in the links below:
Cold Damage to Forsythia Flower Buds at Arnold Arboretum
Why are trees and shrubs so slow to leaf out this spring?
How cold was it? Here’s a photo of last winter’s record in Marianne’s backyard. -19 degrees Fahrenheit!
Last winter left its mark this spring.
(photos by Marianne Atkinson)
On a global scale, 2014 was the warmest year ever recorded but climate change is complicated on the local level. In Pittsburgh we’ve changed into yo-yo extremes.
Pittsburgh’s last two winters were colder than normal but three years ago it was really hot. Spring came six weeks late in 2014 and six weeks early in 2012. This photo of leaves opening on March 25, 2012 is impossible during this year’s cold spring.
I noticed the changes in 2012 but wouldn’t have remembered them if I hadn’t taken a picture. That’s the beauty of keeping a nature journal and it caught the attention of climate journalist Julia Kumari Drapkin. She noticed that local experience of climate change is ahead of the science curve and often raises interesting questions so she decided to flip the typical reporting model and founded the iSeeChange crowd-sourced almanac. Everyday observations and questions now become radio stories.
Fast forward to 2015 and iSeeChange has radio partners across the U.S. and in Africa. The Allegheny Front joined last month so now western Pennsylvanians can record what we see and ask questions about what’s going on in our area.
Last month I signed up for iSeeChange as a quick way to record the signs of spring. In Pittsburgh it’s been cold and variable (click here for the Allegheny Front’s story) but the weather’s different out West. Colorado is hot and already has mosquitoes!
You can contribute, too. As Julia says, “Everyone’s an expert in his own backyard.” Click here to join the iSeeChange almanac.
Post your observations. Upload photos and sound clips. Ask about what puzzles you.
Outdoor changes are always interesting. Maybe yours will be on the radio.
Listen to The Allegheny Front in Pittsburgh on WESA-FM 90.5 every Saturday at 7:30am and on other stations in Pennsylvania, New York and West Virginia at the times listed here. You can also listen any time online at The Allegheny Front.
(photo by Kate St. John)